It’s already 3 days since the world cup has started. Although it’s kind of late to start this post, with more than 50 days of cricket left, I guess it’s not too late to write one. When it comes to favorites for this world cup, it’s pretty much wide open. As for me, all main test playing nations have a good shot of winning it. This should turn out to be a cracker of a tournament. Being a great cricket lover, I just love analyzing team strengths and weakness (with stats to prove them). Let me start with the least favorites and write my way up to the hot favorites.
6 England:
Batting: Openers: Ed Joyce and Michael Vaughan. Joyce, 28, made his debut only a year ago. He has a vast first class experience. His century against Australia in the recently concluded CB Series was simply superb. He looks like a solid player but consistency is the one which is more important when it comes to big stage. With very limited experience in the international arena, its too much of an asking to expect something big from him everytime he goes on to bat. When it comes to Vaughan, he was in and out of the team for the past one year, owing to series of injuries. So I don’t think he will be at his best. For me, the opening looks a very fragile one. And they are not attacking batsmen as well. (With strike rates in and around 65)
First down and middle order: Ian Bell has been very good in the last one year. You can bet on him to score atleast 35+ in every other match. He is very handy in bowling too. This combo of his ability to score at will and put in some valuable overs, is one of the good things to have happened to England. And then the main trio of Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood and Andrew Flintoff. England getting to a healthy total depends heavily on these three’s performances. Pietersen hasn’t played a single game in the last 2 and half months. He was out of the CB series due to the fractured rib. It will take him a game or two to come to terms. With his kind of game, I am not too impressed with him coming at No.4. As for me, he must come at No.6 and help the team to push the score in the last 15 overs. No.5 is Paul Collingwood, he is their Savior. He is the man in form, his last 3 knocks (106, 120* and 70) in Australia speak volumes about his importance for England’s performance in this World Cup. It’s not only his batting that’s vital; he is a very reliable bowler and a great fielder in the covers too. And next is Vaughan’s deputy Freddie. He was not in the best of the forms in the last season, bit of scratchy recovering from his injuries. But now he is peaking at the right time as well. He has got his batting form back, bowling seam movement back and looking good in field too. A lot depends on these three for sure.
Lower-order: They don’t have a deep batting order. Pinch hitting lies on the shoulders of above mentioned middle order trio, Jamie Dalrymple and Paul Nixon. JD is a genuine allrounder, he hasn’t played a great part so far but it’s his hard hitting capability that the England team is banging on, to milk some extra runs in the final overs. Nixon at 36 is a pretty old customer(in county cricket) but he is just new to the international cricket. He was a surprise draft to the England World cup side(ahead of Jones). I expect nothing great from this guy.
Bowling:
Front line seamers for England are Liam Plunkett, James Anderson and Sajid Mahmood. Similar to their batsmen, they were pretty normal till the end of ashes. But in the last couple of months, Plunkett and Mahmood have improved leaps and bounds. The whole bowling package looks pretty decent now. Plunkett heads the group. He was pretty consistent in Australia, in the last 5 matches he took 12 wickets (4 times 3 wickets). I am not a great fan of Anderson, in the first couple of years he impressed one and all with his raw pace and consistent line. After suffering from series of injuries, he is no more the same. His career was more of a sea-saw game, full of ups and downs. But lately, he looks in a great shape. And then the medium pacer in Freddie, he’s considered as the fulcrum of their attack. In his day, he is simply devastating. And then part-timers Colingwood, Bell and Dalryple can throw in some good overs. And then their main strike bowler, Monty Panesar. With wickets kind of tricky in WestIndies nowadays , England’s hopes of turning the table in the vital situations solely depends on Monty’s loops and quickies. He has a great character and his presence brings a great deal of energy to England’s dressing room. This is quite evident from the response of players and spectators when he comes on to bowl.
Verdict:
Although they look to be a talented team with the present form in mind, they don’t have it in them to make it big. They lack a genuine pinch hitter in the death overs, very fragile openers, most of the bowlers are not dependable, they not only lack the wicket-taking abilities, they concede the most number of runs in the first 20 overs and they are one of the most inexperienced team in the tournament. So, England has a very narrow chance of making it. (Even this time!!)
5 Pakistan:
Batting:
Openers: Imran Nazir and Mohammad Hafeez.I remember Nazir starting his career in bang. He is one of those gifted batsmen who have never used his abilities to the fullest. Nowadays, he has become very careless. As soon as he comes in, he starts to score 20-30 odd runs in rush and then plays a silly shot and gets out early(inspired by Afridi’s batting style I guess). For instance, in the first match against WI, he scored a 6 in the second ball (upper cut) of the game and got out in the very next ball trying to force a ball going away from the batsman. If he continues with his swing-the-bat-at-everything-thrown attitude, he is not going to be of a great impact at the top of the order. Next Opener is Hafeez, he is one of the all-rounders for Pakistan.He is most likely to open with Nazir, unless otherwise the team management opts for Afridi to him. Hafeez has always been patchy; most of his decent scores were in subcontinent pitches. On any given day, its better to go for Afridi as opener, he is the one who can take the opponent attack into pieces. He is a great allrounder. I love his bowling, he has a great legbreak googly. With West Indies pitches getting slower and slower, his bowling is really important in the pakistan’s equation of things.
First down and Middle Order: They have a very experienced middle order in Younis Khan, Mohammad Yousuf and Inzamam-ul-Haq. Piling runs in the middle overs belongs to these guys. Younis Khan, he is really strong in the arc area. I always loved watching him play (obviously not against India). But his present form is very mediocre. In the last 10 matches, his avg looks pretty bad at 20.4. Mohammad Yousuf, was simply phenomenal last year. He had a dream year topping the all time test match runs scored for a calendar year and topping the number of centuries for a calendar year as well. Its not only tests, even in One dayers he was in devastating best. As for me, he is the Pakistani player to be looked upon in this tournament. Next, captain of the Ship, Inzi, one of the legends of Pakistani Cricket. He is remarkable, with his bulky structure its easy for anyone to mistake him as a pinch hitter kinda batsman, but his real strength is sublime touch. His pulls and lofted drives are treats for any cricket loving fan. Similar to Younis Khan, he is not in the best of the forms. If we pull out the stats for this last 2 seasons, its not looking that good. In his last 25 matches (Starting last feb), he has batting avg of meagre 31 runs with only one half century (79). It’s high time he scores big in this worldcup. Its been 9 matches since he has scored more than 15 runs in a world cup match.
Lower Order: With no Razzaq around, they rely on Shoaib Malik and Kamran Akmal to score in the death overs. Shoaib Malik is the trump card for this Pakistan team. He can score in bulk, has a very good strike rate, and very handy in bowling too. With respect to Kamran Akmal, I don’t know what happened to his batting in the last one or 2 seasons. He is in a pathetic form, in the last 29 matches he has scored only at the rate of 16.69 runs with only one half century. With Afridi at top, its very important for Kamran to come to terms to score some fast runs.
Bowling:
They are really handicapped with the absence of Shoib Akhtar and Mohammed Asif. Without them, they look like a second fiddle bowling attack. Except for Umar Gul and Danish Kaneria, I don’t see anyone making a big impact in this tournament. Umar Gul is their strike bowler, he looks very promising. He has one of the best outswingers, not only his wicket taking abilities, his economical rate is also very good. And when it comes to other seamers, Naved-ul-Hasan stands more likely to share the new ball with Gul. He is also in a lean patch. He is extremely lucky to make it to the World Cup team. With the unavailability,of Akhtar, Asif and Razzaq, management had no other option other than going to already tested horses like Naved ul Hasan and Mohammed Sami (the only 2 experienced “uninjured” bowlers in the Pakistani lineup)
I am sick of hearing about Mohammed Sami in media. Enough is already said about Sami, he started his international career with some great performances. Both Wasim Akram and Imran Khan just love this guy. Whenever he was out of sorts; they have always supported him and helped him out. But he has been consistently inconsistent. My guess is he won’t play more than 2 or 3 matches, unless otherwise he utilizes his chances remarkably well. And they have Iftikhar Anjum and Azhar Mahmood too. I guess Azhar mahmood was inserted to make up the 15 players for world cup (They must have found it hard to find a replacement for allrounder Razzaq. With no enough bench players, they have opted for someone who was not even in the team for almost 2 years now). He has done nothing great in county cricket to get a chance to play in internationals. When it comes to good part-timers, Pakistan has very good ones in Shoib Malik, Afridi and Hafeez. They all can bowl 10 overs on their own. This is the one I like about this team, allrounders are the ones who can win you matches. And in the spin department (other than part-timers), they have a specialist in Kaneria. He was more of a test player than a one day player (only 17 ODIs). Although he was a surprise recall to the world cup team, in a turning pitch, he can be murderous. Well directed googly and the ball that drifts into the batsman are his major assets. Along with Gul, he is one of the main strike bowlers for Pakistan.
Verdict:
Both in paper and in present form, they look very weak when compared to all other main test playing teams. The only reason I have them ahead of England is their experience and their attitude towards the game. They give everything in them to win a match (atleast to avoid fines and suspensions from PCB for playing below par :P). They have too many out of form players (Younis Khan, Inzi, Akmal) and too many surprise picks(Azhar Mahmood, Infikhar Anjum and Hafeez). Not a solid lineup at all. Bits and Pieces of performances wont help them much. As for me, it all depends on Mohammed Yousuf, Afridi and Umar Gul. Pakistan’s chances make or break depending on the performances of these three. Pakistan winning the world cup this time is highly improbable (But counting them out is equally dangerous, they are like Phoenix, they have the history of rising from the ashes)
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